Northern Economist 2.0
Tuesday, 29 May 2012
The North and Population Aging
The 2011 Census results for population age are out from Statistics Canada today and Canada is indeed a much older place than the last census in 2006. The proportion of population aged 65 and over is now 14.8 percent, up from 13.7 percent in 2006. The results for Northern Ontario suggest that the North is older than Canada as a whole. A ranking of Canadian CMAs (Census Metropolitan areas) and Northern Ontario CMAs and CAs (Census agglomerations) show the Sault is the oldest major city in the North with 19.3 percent of its population aged 65 years and older. Thunder Bay is next at 17.2 percent followed by North Bay at 17 percent. Sudbury is next at 16.1 percent with Timmins the youngest at only 13.8 percent. For Canada's CMAs as a whole, the oldest is Peterborough at 19.5 percent and the youngest is Calgary at 9.8 percent. Indeed, Calgary, Edmonton and Saskatoon, out in the booming west with its influx of young migrants - are the three CMAs with the lowest share of population aged 65 and over. Additional note, I've left Elliot Lake (a northern CA) off of this graph. Its proportion of population aged 65 and over is 35.1 percent but then it has become a retirement community.
Wednesday, 23 May 2012
Northern Economist on Canadian Trade, Manufacturing & Health Transfers!
You might want to check out some of these recent contributions to public policy. I did a piece on federal health transfers that appeared in iPolitics in late April arguing that the Canada Health Transfer should be broken up into two separate components - a per capita amount and a needs based amount that takes factors like demographic differences into account. I've been busy blogging on Worthwhile Canadian Initiative and there has been a spirited debate on the decline of manufacturing, natural resource exports and Dutch disease going on there that was recently picked up on by Maclean's magazine. Finally, the Winnipeg Free Press just ran a piece on the prospects and impact of the free trade agreement Canada is currently negotiating with the European Union. You can continue to follow my posts on Worthwhile Canadian Initiative in one centralized location at uFollow.
Wednesday, 29 February 2012
Time for a Break
Well it has been a busy time for Northern Economist and getting busier all the time. March always marks the onset of my busiest time of the year and this year along with finishing up supervising two honour's theses, teaching my courses, and being Department Chair, I am also involved in an undergraduate program evaluation for the Department of Economics at Lakehead and helping to draft our new Department academic plan. I'm also on the university Promotion, Tenure and Renewal committee again in the spring. In addition, I'm also committed to conference papers to present my research in April, May, June, July and September so as much as I enjoy blogging about northern Ontario's economy, I'm out of time.
As my colleague Steve Gordon at Worthwhile Canadian Initiative has remarked, blogging is a lot like giving out free pizza. However, the pizza is free only for those who choose to consume the product - I still have to do the baking. We blog to contribute to debate and policy formation, to try and help make a difference, but in the end there is only so much time to go around. This break may last a while as I'm also heading into a sabbatical and for academics, sabbaticals are generally breaks from your usual routine and investment of your time in professional development. I will be spending mine on wealth research and analysis of health expenditure and health system sustainability along with some deepening on my econometric skills. Sorry, but baking lots of free pizza is not the way I was planning to spend my sabbatical.
For those of you who like my stuff on northern Ontario, you can continue to access the past posts I've done both here and at at my original Northern Economist 1.0 site where there is a wealth of material dealing with the region's economy from a descriptive and analytical perspective. Enjoy. You can also check in at this site from time to time just in case an important topic grabs my attention. As well, I will continue to post occasionally on more general economic topics as part of the team on Worthwhile Canadian Initiative, Canada's premier economics blog. You can access all of my posts on Worthwhile Canadian Initiative in a convenient listing at Ufollow.
All the best and cheers! Livio.
As my colleague Steve Gordon at Worthwhile Canadian Initiative has remarked, blogging is a lot like giving out free pizza. However, the pizza is free only for those who choose to consume the product - I still have to do the baking. We blog to contribute to debate and policy formation, to try and help make a difference, but in the end there is only so much time to go around. This break may last a while as I'm also heading into a sabbatical and for academics, sabbaticals are generally breaks from your usual routine and investment of your time in professional development. I will be spending mine on wealth research and analysis of health expenditure and health system sustainability along with some deepening on my econometric skills. Sorry, but baking lots of free pizza is not the way I was planning to spend my sabbatical.
For those of you who like my stuff on northern Ontario, you can continue to access the past posts I've done both here and at at my original Northern Economist 1.0 site where there is a wealth of material dealing with the region's economy from a descriptive and analytical perspective. Enjoy. You can also check in at this site from time to time just in case an important topic grabs my attention. As well, I will continue to post occasionally on more general economic topics as part of the team on Worthwhile Canadian Initiative, Canada's premier economics blog. You can access all of my posts on Worthwhile Canadian Initiative in a convenient listing at Ufollow.
All the best and cheers! Livio.
Friday, 24 February 2012
Thunder Bay's Fiscal Follies
The Thunder Bay City Council budget situation grows more and
more curious. A media report
yesterday contained what can only be termed contradictory information. On the one hand, the story in the
Chronicle-Journal stated that: “The proposed budget includes a 2.67 per-cent
property tax increase on top of a 1.5 percent hike for the enhanced
infrastructure renewal program.”
This means that the combined property tax increase for this budget year
is actually 4.2 percent. Yet, a little
later in the story, Councilor Linda Rydholm is quoted as saying she was willing
to support the budget because: “At ward meetings and other places, it seems
like people are expecting the 2.67 per cent increase, particularly knowing that
1.5 percent is for infrastructure, roads and buildings.” In other words, the tax increase is
2.67 percent but the 1.5 percent is included.
It would appear that we are still sorting out the size of
the actual increase in Thunder Bay’s 2012 municipal taxes. Moreover, it would appear that even
city councilors are confused as to whether the total increase is 2.67 percent
or 4.2 percent. Add to this the
fact that seven million dollars was inadvertently left out of this year’s
municipal budget and now will be funded out of the reserve fund, one has to
wonder what exactly is going on?
Is there some confusion on the part of the media in understanding council's message? Are city councilors unable to grasp the details and complexity of the
budget process? Are city administrators
and councilors engaged in a strategy of sowing confusion to obscure the true size
of the increase? Or is this simply some giant comedy of errors at taxpayer
expense?
If the total municipal tax increase is indeed 4.2 percent,
it means that total payments to the city by municipal ratepayers will rise nearly
5 percent this year once the rise in water rates of 6.7 percent is
included. In 2011, the water
bill for the average household was 714 dollars while the average property tax bill was
2,501 dollars. Using these figures
to compute a weighted average results in an increase of 4.8 percent in total payments
by ratepayers to the city in 2012 (4.8=0.22*6.7+0.78*4.2). Breaking up a 4.8 percent increase into
three separate numbers may fool some of the taxpayers some of the time but it
cannot fool all of them. If City
Council wants to remain at all credible, it will need to come clean and address
this confusion and very quickly.
This credibility is all the more important given the cost overruns for
operating the new waterfront park and the desire to build a new multiplex that
will also require a large public operating subsidy.
Thursday, 23 February 2012
Does Ontario Need Another Growth Plan?
Last Saturday’s Globe and Mail (February 18, B6) ran an article
titled “Rebuilding Ontario: A Plan for the Way Forward” which laid out a discussion
of Ontario's economic future. For Northerners, all the talk of decline and the
need for diversification was strangely familiar. Indeed, one can best describe what is happening as the
“Northern Ontarioization” of Ontario’s economic discourse as Ontario tries to
decide how to grow its future economy in the wake of the Drummond Report, which
seems to have finally crystallized the fact that Empire Ontario has slipped
into decline. Of course, some of
us saw the eclipse of Ontario a bit earlier than that (check out End of Empire, National Post, February
19, 2005, FP19) but better late than never.
The Globe and Mail described four options for the province to get
its “mojo back”. They were financial services, technology, health care and
natural resources. Missing was that perennial Northern Ontario favorite - tourism. Despite the talk of putting a casino in
Toronto, it is unlikely to see Ontario reinventing itself as Vegas North. Vegas style tourism requires a degree of individual and entrepreneurial freedom that regulatory Ontario is unlikely to acquire anytime soon.
Of all these options, the one most likely to kick start Ontario’s
economy is the natural resource sector. The mining frontier in Ontario’s North
– especially the so-called Ring of Fire- can serve as an investment frontier
for the rest of the province much like mining and forestry did in the late
nineteenth and early twentieth century.
However, this does require that the province embrace its North rather
than treat it as a remote relic of the economic past. Here, the contrast is made with Quebec. According to the Globe and Mail:
“Rather than shun its expansive north, Quebec is emphasizing it, hashing out an
ambitious 25-year project dubbed “Plan Nord”. Quebec is betting its future on developing mining, energy
and forestry resources located far north of its major cities. Ontario could
adopt a similar scheme.”
Really? How
interesting. The fact is Ontario
has also developed a Northern Growth Plan – a point the Globe and Mail article seemed
to have missed but then Canada’s “national” newspaper is based in Toronto. Part of what is wrong with Ontario’s
economy is a myopic economic vision that does not look outside of Toronto. Perhaps that is why since the Northern
Growth Plan has been released, all that has resulted is more planning. Given the dominance of
Toronto vision in Ontario and its government, the chromite deposits of the Ring
of Fire could only be developed quickly if they were at the corner of Yonge and
Bloor.
Ontario does not need a growth plan. Ontario needs a set of concrete actions to develop its
northern resource frontier as an investment frontier for the province. The North can be a place for infrastructure
investment and value-added processing that can drive economic growth in
Ontario. The North can be a
frontier for the deployment of Ontario’s labour skills and human capital. Given the capital and technology
intensive nature of modern mining, the North can also be a frontier for high
technology industries. And, the
financial service industry in Toronto got its start in the financing of mining
ventures in Northern Ontario.
Financing new mining ventures in the North can once again be a source of
growth for Toronto’s financial sector.
What is Ontario waiting for?
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