Statistics Canada has released its population estimates for sub-provincial areas as of July 1, 2023 and they show rapid growth in population in Canada as well as all of its Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs). As noted by statistics Canada: "On July 1, 2023, the combined population of Canada's 41 census metropolitan areas (CMAs) reached 29,814,146 people. The population growth experienced in CMAs (+3.5%) from July 1, 2022, to July 1, 2023, outpaced that of Canada as a whole (+2.9%). In comparison, census agglomerations (CAs) saw a population growth rate of 2.0%, while areas outside CMAs and CAs grew at a combined rate of 1.1%. These differences are a sign that Canada continues to get more urbanized, as the proportion of Canadians living in a CMA reached almost three in four (74.4%) on July 1, 2023. However, it should be noted that the population growth rate for areas outside CMAs and CAs was at its highest in over 20 years and that 2022/2023 was the third consecutive year in which these regions grew faster than 1.0%."
Naturally, those of us in Northern Ontario have been wondering how much our population has grown and the results show that Thunder Bay and Sudbury have also experienced growth. In 2023, Greater Sudbury reached an estimated population of 185,230 - up from 180,271 the year previous for an increase of 2.8 percent. Indeed, Sudbury is pretty close to meetings its projected population of 188,510 by 20151 several decades ahead of schedule. Meanwhile, Thunder Bay - which has been marked by a debate over missing tens of thousands of people in its population tallies - is also up and its CMA appears to have topped 130,000 for the first time coming in at 130,752 for an increase of 1.4 percent over the year previous. Half of Thunder Bay's population growth since 2001 appears to have occurred in just one year which is remarkable. Thunder Bay's population has been growing and the estimates do show a much larger number than the official 2021 Census tally but the estimates have always been larger than the census tally. In 2021 for example, the census tally for the Thunder Bay CMA was 123,258 while the July 1st population estimate by Statistics Canada was 128,040.
As much as Thunder Bay has grown over the last year - adding nearly 2,000 people in one year according to the estimates - its population growth rate for 2022 to 2023 was nevertheless still the lowest of all Canadian CMAs as illustrated in the accompanying figure. The estimates suggest that the official census headcount based on individuals filling out the census does underestimate actual population but one is looking at something in the range of about 5,000 people - maybe 10,000 if one wants to be generous about it. That is still a substantial difference this is due to transient elements of the population less likely to fill out census documents including students as well as Indigenous peoples. However, it is likely not the tens of thousands that some have argued in the past. One estimate that there are 15 percent more people than the official census count would put our population at over 140,000.
So, Thunder Bay is growing and that is good. But, it is not growing as much as we think in terms of population and indeed relative to everyone else, it seems to have the slowest growth rate.