Last post, we looked at Ontario’s population and in particular its concentration in the GTA and what I termed the GTAPlus or "The Polygon" – a geographic area essentially going from Oshawa to the end of the Niagara peninsula and then to Kitchener-Waterloo and finally out to Barrie and back to Oshawa with Toronto approximately in the center. Approximately two-thirds of Ontario’s population and by extension its economy are clustered in this small area whose perimeter is about 500 km and encompasses a total area of nearly 14,000 square kilometers and a land area of about 11,000 square kilometers. On a map of Ontario, this area looks like a postage stamp and represents only about 1.3 percent of its area. Yet, well over nine million people out of Ontario’s 14 million people live here and it accounts for approximately 600 billion in GDP – nearly 70 percent of Ontario’s economy.
In many respects, this core area has always been the heart of Ontario’s economy but less so in the past in terms of its population, urban, and economic dominance. There was a time when Ontario had somewhat more dispersed and balanced urban and economic development but the economic development of the last century has increasingly concentrated economic activity in The Polygon. In order to provide some perspective on the evolution of Ontario’s population over time, we start with Figure 1 which plots the population of Ontario’s largest municipalities today ranked according to their 2021 population. These differ from CMA populations – for example, while Hamilton is the third largest CMA in Ontario, its municipal boundaries and population make it the fifth largest municipality in Ontario after Toronto, Ottawa, Mississauga and Brampton. Population size today versus 1921obscures the size of these cities 100 years ago so Figure 2 also plots the 1921 populations on their own.
Needless to say, the rankings have shifted somewhat over time. London, Ontario was Ontario’s third largest municipality in 1921 while Hamilton was fourth, Windsor fifth and Thunder Bay (then the two Lakehead municipalities of Fort William and Port Arthur) would have been Ontario’s sixth largest city. Ontario’s third and fourth largest cities today – Mississauga and Brampton were essentially small towns in 1921. Indeed, much of the GTA outside of the City of Toronto today in 1921 was at the bottom of the municipal population rankings. Indeed, when one considers these 30 largest municipalities (though Pickering and Ajax have been combined) – 23 of them can be considered members of the Polygon. These municipalities alone account for nearly 9 million people in Ontario today, representing nearly two thirds of Ontario’s population. However, in 1921, they totaled about 700,000 out of Ontario 2.9 million for approximately 25 percent of Ontario’s population.
Put another way, in 1921, nearly three quarters of Ontario’s population lived outside the Polygon whereas today it is at best one-third. The increasing concentration of economic activity and population in The Polygon – Ontario’s geographic top 1 percent so to speak – reflects the decline of resource sector (agriculture included) and manufacturing industries that had dispersed population prior to the mid 20th century. The relative decline of cities such as Thunder Bay, Sudbury, London and Windsor – the North and Southwest regions of the province – reflects this economic shift. The growth of the Polygon cities reflects the rise of services and knowledge industries and the increasing importance of having large urban agglomerations with economies of scale and scope for associated industries and robust international connections to world cities as the source of growth.
Is this a problem?
Well it depends on your perspective I suppose. The Polygon is a dynamic and growing
population and economic cluster in Ontario and is essentially Ontario’s gateway
to the international economy. While
small and compact, it has a very diverse population given it is the end point
for most of the international immigration into Ontario. By world standards, having 9 million plus people
clustered on 11,000 square kilometers – over 800 persons per square kilometer
– is not exactly at the top of the list. The Polygon is still quite roomy by world
standards. For example, the Hong Kong
SAR with an area of just over 1,000 square kilometers has about 7,000 people
per square kilometer. Nevertheless, for
the Polygon region to proposer, it will need continuing investment in
infrastructure not least of which will be housing. It will also need investment in quality of
life infrastructure such as green space and recreational facilities, not to
mention transit. Still, these challenges
represent opportunities for creative solutions and innovation. The most
important challenge is the institutional framework given the patchwork of
municipalities and jurisdictions in this area. Infrastructure development based on existing municipal boundaries is a sense fails to take into account the true scope of the Polygon as a growing and integrated region.
Some of those creative solutions will also need to address what happens to those living outside The Polygon. Here the challenges are more diverse. In the end, Ontario really consists of three regions - The Polygon, The Ottawa Nexus (Ottawa and the Kingston-Pembroke area) and then everyone else. Figure 3 outlines what this looks like in terms of distribution with the Polygon at closer to 10 million people here because Muskoka-Kawarthas are lumped into it for population purposes. The Ottawa region is the next largest outside of the Polygon but with its role as the federal capital and its own relatively compact outlying region, it will easily find its own solutions to its growth and development issues. More problematic will be those parts of Ontario outside of the Polygon and Ottawa Nexus, the Southwest from London to Windsor and upwards into the Bruce Peninsula and of course “The North” which with 90 percent of Ontario’s land area only has about 6 percent of the population. The interests of a high growth densely populated region like the Polygon will differ from these slower growth and lower population density parts of Ontario.
Needless to say, there will not be a one size fits all solution to economic growth and development in these regions but their success will ultimately all hinge on their ability to tap into opportunities offered by the Polygon and how to market the goods and service of their regions there and beyond. There is strength in numbers and it is time for cities like Windsor and London in the Southwest, Thunder Bay and Sudbury, in the North and Peterborough and Kingston in the East to forge better relationships within their regions and with each other to promote their common interests outside. These cities may have greater success by magnifying their lobbying power and political influence within Ontario by presenting a more united front when it comes to economic development issues. Easier said than done? Yes, but when it comes to the economic future, there is no say, only do.