Outgoing councillor Rebecca Johnson has joined city administrators in raising the alarm over what appears to be the low number of confirmed candidates for this fall’s municipal election. In 2018 there were apparently twice as many registered candidates at this point. On the one hand, this is probably not a surprise given the last few years have been exhausting because of the pandemic not to mention the worst winter in two decades has left people scrambling to repair damage to homes and basements. People are preoccupied on numerous fronts now and running for council is probably not at the top of their list. Moreover, there is still almost two months to go until the August 19th deadline and if the past is any indication, there will be plenty of candidates springing from under the woodwork any day soon.
Of course, given the record low turnout in the recent provincial election, it is a reasonable question to ask if there is a lack of engagement with this year’s coming municipal election. Political life has never been more challenging given the presence of social media which makes election campaigns often more akin to a process of ritualistic character assassination than a debate of ideas. There is probably also a sense of fatigue in Thunder Bay over constant issues that never seem to be resolved and in recent years appear to have only grown whether it is crime or deteriorating infrastructure. One expects this year’s issues will be quite similar to those of 2018 and one senses this endless wheel of time litany is discouraging to many.
And then there is the process of running for municipal office which is not just about signing up to appear on a ballot, but which over time has involved like everything else into a more involved bureaucratic process. Nomination papers must be filed by appointment only. You need the endorsement of at least 25 people if you wish to run for Mayor or councillor – a spur of the moment decision it is not. There is a filing fee, a declaration of qualifications and a consent to release personal information. While one might want to discourage frivolous candidacies, at the same time, one may need to review the process to see if it can be made more candidate friendly.
Yet, it remains that there is probably not going to be a shortage of candidates. This type of hand wringing has happened before and will happen again. During the 2018 municipal election campaign in Thunder Bay, there were similar concerns being expressed by early July as with the exception of the Mayor’s position, there was a drop in the number of candidates seeking municipal office in most of the wards. It turns out after the story went out, a slew of candidates came forth and the total number of candidates running for municipal office in Thunder Bay rivalled that of much larger cities. There were 101 candidates vying for office of 2018 with 26 going after an at-large position which pretty much guaranteed victory for incumbents.
In the end, the chief beneficiary of a plethora of candidates is incumbents who already have deep rooted name recognition. More candidates split and fracture any opposition vote whereas fewer candidates running allows dissenting or dissatisfied voters an opportunity to coalesce around an opponent and bring incumbents down. It is noteworthy that many incumbents have not declared yet either – including the current Mayor. Incumbents announcing too early potentially scares off candidates and reduces the candidate pool, so the trick is to lay low and wait for the competition to reveal itself in sufficiently large numbers and then emerge. One suspects the same is going to happen yet again and by August we will be lamenting that there are too many candidates, and the same faces will be getting in again. Thunder Bay’s wheel of time continues.
