The Ontario provincial election is now well underway and the poll
tracking results to date suggest that the Conservatives under Doug Ford are
poised to win another majority government.
The Liberals are projected to increase their seat count but largely at
the expense of the NDP. The Conservatives
have adopted policies and platforms that are appealing to a largely centrist
voter profile and there are substantial infrastructure spending announcements
sprinkled across the province designed to consolidate their support. In some respects, all three parties are making spending announcements like it the 1960s- money seems to be no object. While
still early days, the opposition parties have yet to really come across as a
credible alternative but who knows.
Here in Thunder Bay, the question is whether the provincial Conservatives can reverse what has been a historic pattern of Liberal representation punctuated with bouts of NDP as a palate cleanser. Last time around, the NDP took Thunder Bay Atikokan from the Liberals narrowly edging out the Liberals with the Conservatives a distant third though they did increase their support by about 10 percent and did better than the Conservative on the north side. This time around, the incumbent is NDP, and the two opponents have somewhat lower profiles in the riding than what one might expect. Still, the NDP incumbent won by a rather small margin and depending on how the campaign shapes up, there is always the possibility of change. The south side Conservative candidate does have a background in municipal politics.
On the north side, things are more interesting. With the incumbent not running due to health concerns, there is more of a race in progress. The liberal incumbent won but by a relatively small margin and the runner up last time – NDP Lise Vaugeois – is running again. The Liberals have current south side Northwood municipal Councillor Shelby Ch’ng running while the Conservatives have recruited municipal Councillor Peng You. This is a riding that historically is even less fertile ground for the Conservatives than the south side of Thunder Bay. And yet, the conservatives probably have their best shot here at reversing their Lakehead drought.
Councillor Peng You is personally very popular with an extensive network of friends, acquaintances and supporters acquired via his years as a Tai Chi master. His victory as an At-Large Councillor in the last municipal election saw him top the candidate totals with the largest tally of votes. He has facilitated a lot of international exchanges and is well liked by those who know him. While his performance as a municipal councillor has occasionally been erratic, that can be attributed to the previous lack of political experiences and a business background not schooled in the byzantine bureaucracy of municipal affairs. He has also been engaged in extensive door knocking across the city. And the provincial government has announced several high-profile infrastructure projects in the region to boot.
Will all this be enough to get a Conservative victory? Who knows? However, the recruitment of Peng You is the most serious attempt by the Conservatives to attract a high profile Thunder Bay candidate to run in years. The possibility to have someone on the government benches is probably not lost on some of the locals especially given that the prospects of a majority government look high. It will be an interesting merry month of May.
