Reported COVID19 cases in Ontario are falling as are hospitalizations . The current wave of COVID19 appears to be in decline in the province as a whole with today seeing 1,593 cases reported. As Figure 1 illustrates, the fifth wave has been the largest in terms of cases report with the first and forth waves receding into practical insignificance relatively. Relative to the number of cases, the mortality rate from COVID has dropped during this fifth Omicron wave. At the same time, the absolute number of deaths are the largest yet as Figure 2 illustrates, and while recent days have seen a drop in numbers, the LOWESS smooth suggests that a drop is not yet underway. Ontario is moving into a relaxation of COVID protocols starting March 1st which makes sense given the drop in cases as well as the effective mortality rate. From January 2020 to August 31st 2021 there were 9511 deaths and a total of 566,719 cases for an effective death rate from COVID19 of 1.7 percent. From September 1st, 2021 to the present there were 509,679 recorded cases and 2,599 deaths for a mortality rate of 0.5 percent. Thus, the mortality rate if you get COVID-19 based on these statistics has fallen by two-thirds.
In the Thunder Bay District, things seem a little different in terms of cases. As Figure 3 shows, there is no decline yet in the current wave. Numbers are still trending up and why this is occurring is something that the local public health unit has not shed too much light on. Some of it is definitely spread in institutional settings but the disturbing aspect is that while hospitalizations are going down in the rest of the province, they are staying pretty much level in the Thunder Bay District. On the bright side, this current wave has not generated an absolute number of deaths (Figure 4) greater than the earlier waves as is the case for Ontario as a whole. On the other hand, there is a slow and gentle upward trend in deaths at the moment.
Needless to say, Thunder Bay is lagging at present in its COVID19 performance and the reasons for it are unclear at least to those of us in the general public at large. While Ontario as a whole seems ready for the relaxation of protocols effective March 1st, Thunder Bay is not. On the other hand, it could be that Thunder Bay as a whole has become much more relaxed with respect to its attitudes towards COVID19 already thereby generating the different trend. Perhaps, Thunder Bay is already providing a picture of what an endemic phase to COVID19 might look like.