The last few days of daily Covid-19 case counts for Ontario show a small spike. As Figure 1 illustrates, from daily case counts just over 1,000 in early June, the numbers declined and bottomed out in mid-July where they hit a low of 114 and have since begun to move up again. Today’s count was 325 which was down from 423 yesterday. Whether this marks a new wave is still be seen. There have been similar spikes from time to time over the last three months and the current one is probably a function of reopening as well as circulation of the Delta variant. However as Figure 2 shows, the trend as depicted by a LOWESS smooth so far suggests that an upsurge is not underway.
That is not to say that we might not be in for a fourth wave but given the current rate of vaccination in Ontario and the maintenance of public masking requirements, it should not be as pronounced as the previous two waves and hospitalization rates should definitely be less. In the end, it was always about hospital capacity being overwhelmed and Ontario’s low per capita hospital bed numbers was one of the key reasons for protracted lockdowns and social restrictions.
Vaccination rates are currently very good. For people aged 50 and over, the two-dose vaccination rates range from 75 percent (50-59) to 93 percent (80+). Seventy percent of 40-49 year-olds have received two doses and 64 percent of 30-39 year-olds. Meanwhile, those 18-29 are at 58 percent and ages 12-17 are at 52 percent. There is still room for improvement. Moreover, daily vaccination rates appear to have fallen which is where the Achilles Heel of the current situation lies. In early July nearly 160,000 people a day were receiving second doses but that has fallen to below 30,000 in recent days.
So, whether or not there is a pronounced 4th wave will largely depend on the speed and severity with which the more transmissible Delta variant goes through the unvaccinated population. Even with full vaccination status, one can still get and transmit the virus but the severity of the disease is greatly reduced. As of today, 9.343 million Ontarians are fully vaccinated – out of a total population of 14.790 million – that works out to 63 percent of the total population. That is still a long way from needed herd immunity estimates that have ranged from 75 to 90 percent. So, it is not over yet.