Ontario appears to be firmly in the grip of a third wave of COVID-19 that is marked by the spread of the new and more infectious variants. As Figure 1 illustrates, and the trend line suggests we are going to surpass the peak of the second wave in terms of daily cases.
Ontario has been reporting close to 3,000 cases a day for the last four days and it does not look to be anywhere near peaking. On the other hand, the Thunder Bay District appears to have gotten its long second wave finally under control and as Figure 2 shows, the trend is now down.
Of course, Thunder Bay is probably only going to have a brief reprieve because new variants of COVID-19 do not appear to have gained a foothold in the district yet though they have been making an appearance both in the Northwest. If you check this map provided by the Toronto Star - as of March 30th, Thunder Bay District still appears to be reporting 0 new variant COVID-19 cases whereas the Northwest Health District to our west is reporting 24% new variant cases and the Algoma to our east it is reporting 68 percent. We are lagging for now but one suspects this is not going to last.
The only possible salvation is if Thunder Bay District can get ahead of the new variants by vaccinating heavily. Apparently, the Astra-Zeneca was available at pharmacies as of Saturday but I am not aware if any vaccines were given out during the long-weekend. Whereas in Thunder Bay, it is normal to have your MRI scheduled at 3 in the morning because of demand and capacity constraints, it would appear that round the clock vaccination during a pandemic is not happening. That is either because we are incapable of innovating or thinking fast enough or more likely - there is simply not enough vaccine to keep giving shots 24/7. As well, there have been now more than a few anecdotal stories emerging on how it is possible to get a vaccine at the end of the day if you know someone working there. I suppose what else is new in Thunder Bay, Canada's biggest high school clique masquerading as a large urban center.
Without widespread vaccination quickly, the new variants will gain a foothold here too. Relying on people social distancing and following the rules is not happening. If you have been to a large retailer the last few days, watch how most people going in do not even bother to sanitize their hands. Compliance with and enforcement of public health measures has been the problem all along in Thunder Bay and beyond.