The COVID-19 case count is surging in Ontario and is even affecting more remote parts of the province that saw a relatively mild first wave – such as the Thunder Bay District. It has been a while since I plotted my provincial and local numbers with trend and presented a visual update, so here it is. Figure 1 plots the daily number of cases in Ontario with a LOWESS smooth that highlights the trend. The second wave of cases is as known already much larger than the first and is definitely poised to continue surging. Based on the trend line, one can easily expect to see 3,000 cases per day within three weeks which brings us the early December. More ominous is the rise in death rates shown in Figure 2 and here while there is an upward trend, the second wave so far has seen a milder death toll than the first wave. However, if one extrapolates that trend line, one could see the death toll hit the levels of the first wave in about three weeks also. Needless to say, the trends are not pointing to a good place.
As for Thunder Bay, one expects the smugness should be over but Thunder Bay is a stubborn place. Many in Thunder Bay have been carrying on in their splendid isolationism as if they were somehow exempt from infectious spread given the low number of cases and only one death to date. As Figure 3 shows, the District was largely spared during the first wave not so much by superior behavior but by geographic distance, low population density and good luck.
The
luck seems to have ended given the large number of close contact cases over the
last week. There has finally been a
local super spreader event though the demographic affected at this point appears
to be a younger one. Whether this can be
contained and spread to more vulnerable demographics prevented remains to be
seen. If nothing happens to curtail the current trend, at the current trend rate of increase, within three weeks one can expect 25 to 30 cases per day. And, eventually there will be more deaths.