COVID-19 Trends in Thunder Bay District

Thunder Bay District's first COVID-19 case was reported about one month ago - on March 26th.  Since then, the number of cases have grown but the number of daily new cases appears to have declined from the peak reached April 15th.  We have however, also registered out first death as of April 23rd and given mortality rates from the illness, one can probably expect a couple more deaths based on current case load numbers.  The first figure below shows the steady ascent from the first case to the current (as of yesterday) total of 63.



The ascent appears to have slowed since the 21st and the next figure plotting daily new cases does appear to show a distinct hump peaking somewhere between April 11th and April 15th.  If over the next week, growth in new cases drys up completely then it may be that the pandemic has failed to take firm root in our part of Ontario.  This is certainly good news, but not a cause to relax given the need to maintain physical distancing protocols and precautions in the absence of either a cure or a vaccine.



Its not over yet. Maintaining personal discipline over the next few months is crucial to arresting the progress of this virus.