The meetings
currently underway in Thunder Bay for police service boards and chiefs is
focusing on challenges facing the north and in particular those dealing with
guns, drugs and gangs. In particular,
the lack of funding for addressing what is perceived to be escalating crime is
a major grievance given that the federal government has transferred money to
the Ontario government to fight gangs, drugs and gun related activity but to
date the province has apparently only chosen to assist Toronto and Ottawa. Jeff McGuire, executive director of the Ontario
Association of Chiefs of Police, is in Thunder Bay for the meetings and stated:
“I think the government had the right
intentions, there were serious guns and gangs issues going on at that moment in
Toronto and GTA area. Members of OACP were quick to point out it’s not just a
GTA challenge.”
What is interesting when looking at this issue is
taking a look at the violent crime statistics.
Figure 1 plots total violent crimes from 1998 to 2018 for Thunder Bay, Toronto
and Ottawa. If a provincial government politician
handing out money to fight growing violent crime is deciding on where need was
most urgent based on Figure 1, they would automatically judge that need was
greatest in Toronto. Toronto not only has the most violent crime
incidents of the three cities but also what seems visually to be a rapidly
escalating problem since 2015 - which by the way was preceded by a long
decline. Indeed, after a period of
decline, all three cities have seen an increase in total violent crime largely
related to increased gang and drug activity, but Toronto has the most violent
crimes, followed by Ottawa and then Thunder Bay.
However, making the
decision only based on total volume misses the point that crime is not only
about total scale but also intensity relative to the size of local populations.
Toronto and the GTA does indeed have the most violent crime, but it also
accounts for almost half of Ontario’s population. What is also relevant is crime per person or per capita which adjusts for total population size.
Figure 2 plots the number of violent crimes
per 100,000 population and here the difference is startling. While all three cities have seen an increase
in violent crimes per capita over the last three years, Thunder Bay’s rate is
practically double that of either Ottawa or Toronto. Its policing numbers and resources per capita
are definitely not double those of either city.
Some help is obviously needed.
The provincial
government does need to address the local policing situation though as has been
noted, more money alone will not solve the problem. We need to understand why it is that after
years of decline, violent crime in all three cities is now trending
upwards. As was noted by Jeff McGuire,
there are other issues to be addressed including mental health, poverty and
firearm access. Nevertheless, a good start would be understanding the
distinction between totals and per capita amounts and making it part of any decision making process that allocates new resources.