On his recent state visit to the UK, US President Donald Trump waded into the Brexit issue and Britain’s EU relations with a number of pronouncements that included tweeting that Britain should throw off the “shackles” of EU membership and also offering the promise of a US trade deal once they left. If Britain follows through and leaves the EU, a trade deal with the United States would be an important consolation prize but one hopes the British have been watching the US and its ongoing relationship with Canada and Mexico to know that even with trade deals, economic relations with the current US administration can be a bit of a roller coaster.
Of course, President Trump is up to more than simply trying to throw the British a lifeline. Trump and indeed a chunk of like-minded American policy thinkers have never liked the EU and have been waiting for Euro and the EU to fall apart and fail. Indeed, one perspective in the Harvard Business Review a number of years ago refers to the EU as a failed experimentbecause of its slow recovery from the 2008-09 recession, the undemocratic aspects of the EU Commission and the failure to create a more integrated federation. Of course, if Europe was successful in creating a more integrated federation, it would likely spark the ire of Donald Trump even more.
Indeed, with his attacks on the relevance of NATO and the EU, it has been noted that Trump has been trying to disrupt the EU. While the presence of a united Europe which shares common economic and cultural values and supports a liberal international order, with the United States should be seen as a natural ally, the current President of the United States essentially sees a united Europe as a large bloc that would better serve American interests by being shattered into smaller units. These smaller units can then be played off one against the other for short term economic and political advantage whether it is trade deals that benefit the United States or other short-term alliances.
Needless to say, the Europeans have a right to be miffed not only with the UK which with Brexit has become a disruptive rather than constructive force in Europe but also with President Trump who is openly hostile to the EU. Of course, Britain’s behaviour is probably rooted in its history as it spent centuries making sure that continental European powers did not come together to form an alliance. Once they did with the creation of the EU, a cynic would argue that Britain eventually joined to be a disruptive force from within – indeed, De Gaulle thought they should not be admitted. The best thing that Europe can do if Britain leaves the EU is to work towards sticking together and becoming more united, but this is going to be a tough task.