Northern Ontario and
New Brunswick are similar in population size and face similar economic
challenges given their rapidly aging populations and slow population growth. However, with its provincial status, New Brunswick
is often able to attract considerably more attention for its predicament as
opposed to Ontario’s north whose issues are essentially buried within a much
larger population focused
on the GTA. Indeed, a spate of stories
over the years have noted New Brunswick’s declining
birth rate, its outmigration,
and its shrinking
population.
It is now common
knowledge that northern Ontario’s population is aging
at a more rapid rate than the rest of Ontario and that its population growth
now rests on its Aboriginal population which is both younger and faster growing
than the rest of the population. Indeed,
the 2016 Census showed that population was actually increasing in some northern
Ontario Districts and attributable to the rising aboriginal population. Given the projected labour
shortages for northern Ontario that have been forecast as a
result of an aging population and outmigration, it stands to reason that the
Aboriginal population will have to play an increasingly important role in
filling positions.
This role for the
growing Aboriginal population has not only been noted for northern Ontario but
for Canada as a whole which also faces the prospect of labour shortages given
that nearly 20 percent of current employment is filled by those aged 55 years
and older and the decline in labour participation rates particularly among
those aged 15 to 24. In his remarks made
as part of the David
Dodge Lecture in Public Finance at Queen’s University last spring, Bank of
Canada Governor Stephen Poloz noted that: “Employment rates among indigenous
peoples—one of the youngest demographic groups in Canada—remain well below
those of the rest of the country.”
This is the challenge,
not only for northern Ontario but for Canada as a whole. For employment rates among our Aboriginal
population to go up, they need to increase their participation rates and as the
accompanying figure illustrates – there is much work to be done. Figure 1 shows that the labour force
participation rate for the Aboriginal population over the period 2007 to 2017
has remained consistently below that of the total population. The average labour force participation over
this period for the total population for those aged 15 to 64 is 78 percent
compared 64 percent for the aboriginal population. Figure 2 shows that a consistent gap also is
present for the employment rate for those aged 15 to 64 which averaged 72
percent for the total population but 61 percent for the aboriginal population.
Needless to say, this
national situation is invariably also a feature of the northern Ontario economy
and the challenge for 2019 should be to take further steps to devise a strategy to
increase the labour force participation and employment rates of the Aboriginal
population. The first step is increasing human capital and training. While this is probably easier for Aboriginal populations closer to major northern Ontario urban centers, we also need to do better in the case of more remote populations also. Our region’s economic future
depends on our getting this right.