The Conference Board
of Canada recently put out its Summer 2018 Metropolitan Outlooks for Thunder
Bay and Greater Sudbury. Greater Sudbury’s
real GDP growth is expected to be 1.2 percent in 2018 and 1.1 percent in 2019
while its employment growth will be -0.4 per cent in 2018 and rise 1.1
percent in 2019. Meanwhile, Sudbury’s unemployment
rate will rise from 6.7 per cent in 2017 to 7.0 per cent for 2018, before
falling to 6.6 per cent next year. Thunder
Bay’s real GDP is expected to grow 1.2 percent in 2018 and 1 percent in 2019
with employment expected to rise 2.2 percent in 2018 but fall -0.7 percent in
2019. The unemployment rate is expected
to be lower than Sudbury’s at 5.1 percent in 2018 compared to 5.6 percent in
2017 but is expected to be 5.4 percent in 2019.
As the accompanying
figures show, Thunder Bay and Sudbury have been growing more slowly and are
expected to grow more slowly than Canada or Ontario. Sudbury’s economy has been described as “unsettled”
with a steady string of employment losses over the last few years. Its primary hope is the current rebound in
nickel prices given the employment losses have been hitting its mining
sector.
Thunder Bay saw a very good employment growth performance in 2017 that basically helped recover from the 3 percent drop in 2015 – its economy currently can be characterized as “moderate expansion.” What seems to be driving things at the moment in Thunder Bay s a stronger construction sector with numerous small non-residential projects as residential demand is weak. Indeed, the housing forecast for 2018 is 155 units – the lowest number of starts in 15 years. As well, there has been some upturn in manufacturing and transportation.
Thunder Bay saw a very good employment growth performance in 2017 that basically helped recover from the 3 percent drop in 2015 – its economy currently can be characterized as “moderate expansion.” What seems to be driving things at the moment in Thunder Bay s a stronger construction sector with numerous small non-residential projects as residential demand is weak. Indeed, the housing forecast for 2018 is 155 units – the lowest number of starts in 15 years. As well, there has been some upturn in manufacturing and transportation.
So, moving forward. It appears that both Canada and Ontario are expected to see slower rates of economic growth moving towards 2020 with Thunder Bay and Sudbury even lower. In terms of employment growth, Sudbury’s recent string of low employment growth is expected to end in 2019 if nickel prices continue their rebound while Thunder Bay in 2019 is expected to see negative employment growth again before resuming growth. Thunder Bay’s economy has been performing marginally better than Sudbury’s recently as it is somewhat more diversified as in 2017 it had a higher economic structure diversity score of 0.78 compared to Sudbury’s 0.71.