With the July 27th
nomination deadline for municipal office in Ontario rapidly approaching, attention
has been drawn to the observation that the number of candidates seeking municipal
office in Thunder Bay seems to have dropped.
The accompanying figure plots the number of candidates seeking a
position on Thunder Bay City council as of July 6th. With the exception of the race for Mayor
which has seen a healthy increase in both the quantity and quality of candidates,
there has been a drop in most of the other ward races with McKellar Ward being an
exception.
Current River had four
candidates last election while at present there is only one. McIntyre and Neebing also only have one candidate
whereas they had four and three respectively last time. Northwood and Red River are down to two each
from four each last time and Westfort only has three compared to four last
time. The drop is most noticeable in the
At-Large Race which had 19 candidates in 2014 and only 5 to date. The total number of candidates for the City
of Thunder Bay was 51 in 2014 and currently sits at 28 – a drop of 45 percent.
Of course, the decline
in the At-Large race is partly a function of the fact that a number of At-Large
councillors have opted to run for Mayor.
Given that the number of candidates running for Mayor has grown while
the councillor candidates have declined, it suggests that being the top dog in
Thunder Bay is perhaps a more attractive job than being a councillor. Another
possibility is that there is a general lack of interest in running for municipal
office in Thunder Bay this time given that the same faces have had the
positions locked up for years barring the entry of fresh faces and repeated defeats have reduced the
candidate pool in the long run. Even
though there are now some openings, there may also be a feeling of why bother given
the headaches of holding office in a city with so many economic and social
challenges.
Yet, there may be
other explanations. Explaining this
decline, the Thunder
Bay City Clerk has suggested that the earlier deadline compared to other
years may be a factor. In the past, candidates
had from January 1st to mid-September to decide to run but a change in
the Ontario Municipal Act shortened the period to May 1 to July 27. This could indeed be the case given that Greater
Sudbury, which is a larger city than Thunder Bay at present (July 7th)
also only has 28
municipal candidates seeking office down from 70 last time and they have 12
wards plus a mayoral race. There were
ten candidates for Mayor in Sudbury in 2014
and currently there are only 4. Of the
twelve ward races, ten are down from 2014 (See Figure).
If this drop in the
number of candidates is replicating itself across Ontario it means that the
changes to the Ontario Municipal Act that have shortened the nomination period
may actually serve to reduce the quality of our local democracy by having the unanticipated
effect of reducing the candidate pool. Deciding
to run for office is not something that one takes on lightly and a longer period
to decide may be beneficial. Certainly,
having the deadline in the middle of summer when minds are preoccupied with
vacations may also not be a help. On the
other hand, if you are going to run why should a shorter decision period
matter? Perhaps there are other changes that have occurred that have made filing more onerous? Has the volume of paperwork or the fee required gone up? There are still about three weeks left to go before the nominations
close. We will have to see if a surge in
candidates declaring occurs.