With a few days left before the June 7th
provincial election, northern Ontario voters face important choices and
consequences. The governing Liberals
appear headed for defeat if one is to believe the evolving poll
trackers. Indeed, Premier Wynne has acknowledged
the election is lost. This means that
come June 8th there will be a new government with consequences for
the region in terms of public policy.
Public policy is of importance to the region given government’s role in
health, education and transportation, the dependence of the region on
government employment for economic sustenance and the stalled regional economy,
which has seen little net employment growth compared to the rest of the province.
The Liberals have been in power since 2003
and their tenure encompasses the forest sector crisis and the stalled Ring of Fire. On the one hand, the forest sector crisis was
a function of a rising Canadian dollar, aging private pulp mills and increased
competition from abroad. On the other
hand, the increase in electricity rates did not help. As for the Ring of Fire, in the end it is not
going anywhere until chromite prices
rise no matter how much is spent on infrastructure. The Liberal government’s short-term response
to northern development was increased government spending in the region via assorted
projects and initiatives including highway
work. The long-term response was
the 25-year northern Ontario growth plan – which it must be noted actually predates
the Wynne government. Interestingly
enough, to date the growth plan has not been accompanied by
significant results and more to the point, there has been no mention of it
during the current campaign. Make of
that what you wish. However, given Premier
Wynne has acknowledged the election is lost, thought must also be given to
ensuring the region has some representation in any new government that is
formed.
The NDP has surged in the polls since the
election was called and their policies in health, pharma care, education, rent
control and hydro seem mainly to be extensions of what the Liberals have been
campaigning on. For a region dependent on
government job creation, an NDP government would be business as usual but with
a more ideological bent away from market-based solutions to the region’s
issues. If one wants to differentiate
the two parties when it comes to northern policies, one would have to say a key
difference is that the pleasant Andrea Horwath is presently more popular than Kathleen
Wynne. However, when the rest of the
team accompanying Horwath is examined more closely one wonders about the depth
of talent available to serve in portfolios like northern development, natural
resources and health not to mention finance. Most of her team seems drawn from public
sector, labor union, non-profit and social activism sectors. Even the usually ubiquitous lawyers that dot
politics are relatively scarce. Aside from a short–term continuation of
government spending, the long-term economic benefits of an NDP government for
northern Ontario are uncertain despite the claim of change for the better.
Just as uncertain are what the benefits of
a Doug Ford government would be for northern Ontario given the lack of a
detailed and clearly
articulated northern platform. Natural
resource revenue sharing has been promised
as well as a jump start to the Ring of Fire but as noted earlier, the price of
chromite is not going anywhere soon. If
the desire is simply for policy change, that would certainly be provided by a Conservative
government more so than by the NDP but that change given traditional
conservative values, is likely to not support the current orientation of the
region towards public sector dependency.
On the other hand, given that we have been subjected to activist government
economic development policies for several decades, it may be time for a
different approach. Moreover, whatever
one might think of Doug Ford, it remains that his team would include some
proven talent when it comes to northern Ontario – Greg Rickford, Norm Miller
and Vic Fedeli come to mind. Further reflection should also be given to the prospect that based on the distribution of
votes, poll trackers are suggesting a high probability
of a Doug Ford administration.
So what is a northern Ontario voter to
do? Good question. Think about the region and its economy and
the direction you think it should go.
Think about what the benefits and cost of each party and their policies
might be to you and your families and friends.
Then make your decision and go vote.
None of the above is really not an option. One must make a choice from the options
available. On June 8th, the sun will still rise. The northern Ontario economy will still face
challenges and they will need to be tackled no matter who forms the government.
That is the only certainty.