Ontario’s election may very well be decided over the next few days as Ontarians pause to take in the long weekend and use it to step back and ruminate over the political future of the province. One of the most recent polls reveals that the PCs are poised to form a majority government with 40 percent support. However, what is also interesting is that over the last little while this poll shows that Liberal support has plummeted to 22 percent while NDP support has soared to 35 percent. All this suggests that there is still a certain amount of volatility amongst the voters as we head into the home stretch of campaigning into the June 7th election.
So, what do
Ontarians want? On the one hand, the
recent policy initiatives of the Ontario Liberals are popular across a large
swath of Ontarians especially in the larger urban centers. Investments in transit and infrastructure,
the raising of the minimum wage, rent control, more health spending and a
general activist government approach to social and economic policy seem to be
what many Ontarians want. Indeed, these
policies are much like those the NDP is advocating and if one combines the
Liberal and NDP totals it is obvious that 55 percent of Ontarians seem to want
some type of centre-left approach to government and the economy.
It seems
that many Ontarians want Liberal-NDP type policies but seem tired of having them
implemented by the Liberals and particularly by Premier Wynne. Kathleen Wynne is undoubtedly the most capable of the
three leaders in terms of her handling of issues and her analysis and
discussion of policy issues. Yet, she is
also quite driven and intensely focused with a sort of self-absorbed messianic
zeal that can be interpreted as exclusionary to alternate opinions. The
Liberals have been governing since 2003 and Ontarians who like centre-left policies
and would like to see a change in government are likely to shift to the NDP –
hence the Andrea Horwath-NDP surge.
As for the
PCs, their policy platform has been less clear and it is difficult to see if
they really are driven by conservative values and policies or are now simply a
change party driven by the personality of their leader. Doug Ford has a much larger appeal than urban
elites in the Toronto-Ottawa corridor would have expected and his support is
also diverse. However, to date the
policies and changes the PCs might bring to government have not been as clearly
articulated as those of the other two leaders.
Much of the campaign is really a populist drive for change with a
rhetoric directed at the “little guy” to contrast with perceptions of the
Liberals as elitist.
Put another
way, you know what you are going to get if the Liberals form the government –
more of the same. If the NDP form the
government, it will be essentially the same policies but more so and with a new
leader. In terms of fiscal management,
there will be a very elastic budget constraint for years to come from either
the Liberals or the NDP. Yet it should
also be noted that, to date none of the three leaders seem particularly concerned
about the state of the province’s finances and one does not see the province’s
debt abiding anytime under either Wynne, Horwath or Ford.
If the PCs
form the government, it is not so clear what you are getting in terms of policy
approaches to social and economic policy as well as fiscal management. One might assume that as PCs, there will be
an emphasis on deregulation or more efficient government but this is not
clearly apparent to me. There have been a number of promised tax cut announcements but this is not the same as a coherent tax reform strategy. Yet, making it
clearer might also coalesce support more strongly around one of the two
centre-left options. At this point, the
PCs appeal cuts across a wide socio-economic range and perhaps their strategy
is to promise change but not get too specific and split the left.
So, what is
an Ontarian to do this long weekend as they think about the province’s
future? It should be to think long and
hard about the direction of the province in terms what is the coherent big
picture vision of the economy and the province’s finances these three main
party leaders are offering. To date, the
campaign has focused on disjointed announcements of spending and programs
designed to target key ridings or voter demographics. The money to pay for all of this is not a concern. Ontarians of course deserve much more than
this but are unlikely to get it. All
three leaders seem to believe that elections campaigns are not the time to
articulate coherent economic and fiscal visions.