The
consensus seems to be that Ontario’s current Liberal government and Premier
Kathleen Wynne are headed for defeat come the June 2018 election. Recent polls have seen the government
trailing third behind the Conservatives and the New Democrats. An IPSOs poll in mid-September also suggested
that most Ontario voters –- 76 percent -- want a change in government.
Two cabinet
ministers (Treasury Board President Liz Sandals and Deputy Premier Deb
Matthews) recently announced that they will not be seeking re-election which
some may interpret as a signal that there is not a lot of confidence in the
government’s future past June. This is
on top of Economic Development Minister Brad Duguid who announced last month he
won’t run for re-election and Environment Minister Glen Murray in the summer.
As well,
the Premier’s personal approval rating is low.
There is the baggage of nearly 15 years of Liberal government rule
including the demise of the manufacturing sector, high electricity prices, the
high debt and deficit, and the gas plants scandal to which can be added the current
trial underway in Sudbury. And the
electricity sector seems to be a problem that never seems to diminish in scope
given the recent Auditor General’s report that the Wynne government’s plan to
reduce electricity prices will eventually be higher cost in the long run.
Yet, one
should not count Kathleen Wynne and the Liberals out yet. Recent polls have suggested there has been a
bit of a rebound in Liberal support with a September 30th Forum poll
suggesting the Liberals and PCs are tied for support in the vote rich Toronto
area. Given the recent rebound in Ontario’s economy, the electorate may be less
keen to turf the governing party in favor of gambling the PCs might do a better
job with the economy. As well, there
have been a range of initiatives –the minimum wage hike, changes to real estate
rules, the basic income pilot that are likely to sway NDP supporters. And most Ontarians will not understand that a
lower electricity bill today will eventually mean much higher bills tomorrow
under the current Liberal plan. As for the departing cabinet ministers, another
interpretation is that after 15 years one can expect to see the departure of
veterans and renewal of candidates.
It all
comes down to the campaign. The Liberals
in Canada, whether at the provincial level or the federal level tend to campaign
from the left and then govern from the right.
They are usually quite successful in running campaigns with policies that
take enough votes from the NDP to gain office.
They are somewhat less successful in governing like PCs when it comes to
economic matters given that seems to be a congenital Liberal predisposition to grand
social, economic and industrial interventionist strategies. However, demonstrating this to the public
requires a strong, inspiring and methodical policy campaign by the PCs and to
date PC leader Patrick Brown despite any lead in the polls has yet to capture
the imagination of Ontario voters.
In the end,
one can imagine that Liberal support bottomed early enough this summer to allow
the Liberals to position themselves as “the underdog” and come back from
behind. Indeed, one wonders if this was
not the strategy all along to allow the opposition parties to capture the lead
in the polls and peak early.
Of course, such a strategy can still backfire despite the recent policy
stage being set by the Liberals if events deal them economic or political
shocks. And there is always the strong
possibility that the opposition leaders might finally get their act together
and campaign more effectively.
It is going
to be an entertaining next few months in the lead up to the election.