On Friday afternoon, I did a brief presentation at the Impact of Development Conference/Workshop held at the historic Trinity United Church on Algoma Street in Thunder Bay. My talk (which you can access here under "Looking Back and Looking Forward") was titled "Resources and the Northern and Northwestern Ontario Economies: Past, Present and Future." Along with a quick survey of the economic history of northern Ontario and an overview of current economic indicators, I also opined on the current state of developments in the Ring of Fire.
For the benefit of those not fully acquainted with the Ring of Fire, it is of course the massive planned chromite mining and smelting development project in the mineral-rich James Bay Lowland region. The area covers about 5,000 square kilometers but development has been slow. Major players include Noront Resources, the Ontario government and nine first nations. There have been a number of challenges including the cost of capital and transportation infrastructure to access the chromite, energy costs, the lengthy environmental assessment process as well as the process of consultation and negotiation with the nine members of the Matawa Tribal council. You can get a very good detailed analysis of the issues in the Skogstad-Alahmar report here.
However, all of these challenges can be resolved once the real challenge is resolved: commodity prices. Much of the hype in the Ring of Fire springs from the spike in ferro-chrome prices in the 2008-09 period which was followed by a collapse from which there has yet to be a recovery. As the accompanying figure illustrates, there was a 60 percent drop in the price of ferro-chrome and the price has not gone anywhere since.
In the end, its all about commodity prices and until the market price goes up and makes the project profitable, not much else is going to happen.
There is going to be a conference on economic development ithis week. The Impact of Development workshop will be held this Thursday and Friday at Trinity United Hall, 310 Park Street Thunder Bay and has been made possible through the support of the Resources, Economy, and Society Research Group (RESRG) at Lakehead University, ReSDA: Resources and Sustainable Development in the Arctic, Lakehead University Department of History, Canadian International Council – Thunder Bay Branch, and Lakehead University Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities.
The focus of the conference is single industry communities and features presentations on northern Ontario, Atlantic Canada as well as the Arctic and even Latin America. Among the resource sectors covered are forestry and mining. Moreover, a glance at the program will illustrate that there will be a diverse set of perspectives available with respect to development. I will be doing an overview on the resource sector experience in northwestern Ontario with a foray into mining and the Ring of Fire on the Friday afternoon. See the program below.
Last week’s labour force numbers for Canada
from Statistics
Canada were seen as a bit of a shock given that employment
fell by 88,000 in January. Part-time employment declined (-137,000), while full-time employment was up (+49,000). At
the same time, the unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage
points to 5.9%.Ontario also
declined by about 51,000 jobs and much of the loss was due to part-time work.So how does northern Ontario compare when
recent labour force estimates are looked at?
The accompanying figure looks at
employment growth for northeast and northwest Ontario compared to Ontario and
Canada between December 2017 and January 2018.Whereas Ontario and Canada saw employment drop by just over one half of
one percent, total employment in the northeast declined 2.4 percent while in
the northwest it fell by 1.8 percent.As
well, the losses were more driven by full-time employment as it dropped 2.5 percent
in the northeast and 2.3 percent in the northwest.All one can hope is that the January numbers
are a short-term aberration because northern Ontario saw its employment drop
more than either Ontario or Canada and the northeast seems to have been hit harder.
Well, traveling in winter is never much fun and this weekend I was in
Montreal for the Fraser Institute Student Seminar Series and my way back has
been affected by snow and freezing rain and assorted other things.Still, there is always time to blog so here
are the economic news stories that have caught my attention over the last
little while with respect to northern Ontario economic affairs.
Well, this makes a lot of sense.I recall speaking on a Thunder Bay Chamber of Commerce panel last spring
where I made a similar remark that it was time to plan for a new span across
the Kam River.I suppose Thunder Bay City
council is gambling that they can get something for nothing by getting CN to
maintain the bridge but it would be forward looking to plan and line up the
funding for a new modern bridge.Best
case scenario – they could end up with two bridges.How’s that for infrastructure!
This is a good news story not least of which is that 40 jobs from the
crew base are coming to Thunder Bay but because it bodes well for the
development of Porter’s air network.With a crew base in Thunder Bay, Porter can use Thunder Bay as a mini
hub perhaps for an expansion west to Winnipeg or a link through Chicago as part
of it existing network.Porter is
innovative and service oriented and a great alternative to Pearson. They are
also adding a 7th daily flight out of Thunder Bay to Toronto. This weekend reminded me why I rarely fly out of Pearson.
In other transportation news, it would appear air travel is big in
northern Ontario. North Bay is also getting some aviation jobs. I guess 40 is a
magic number for airlines as it is expected that 40 jobs will be created here
also.
Apparently, less than a fifth of businesses in northeastern Ontario are
confident in Ontario’s economic future according to this Chamber of Commerce
annual report. This was reinforced by regional data, as the Business Confidence
Survey reveals that nearly half of northeastern Ontario businesses expect their
organization’s revenue to stay the same over the next 12 months.
It could be that the Canadian economy is finally slowing down given the
recent numbers from Statistics Canada.
While Canada lost 88,000 jobs and Ontario and part time workers were
heavily affected, it is only one month’s data – January – and you would need
several months more before you could argue a trend was underway.However, Thunder Bay and Sudbury saw their
unemployment rates remain pretty much the same with Sudbury remaining at 6.8
percent and Thunder Bay dropping slightly from 6.1 to 5.8 percent.However, as I have noted previously, the
unemployment rate in northern Ontario is not the best indicator of job growth
given the shrinking labour force.Indeed, even the
Sudbury Star noted that while Sudbury’s unemployment rate stayed at 6.8
percent, it nevertheless shed 800 jobs.
Here are the economic news stories that have caught my interest over the last little while in northern Ontario. The start of the new year has been a bit slow when it comes to economic news in the region but then there is so much else going one politically, economically and otherwise in Ontario, Canada and the world especially as we move into a critical phase with the NAFTA negotiations and the start of election campaigning in Ontario in the run up to the June election.
Well, this looks like a creative way to try and create some type of downtown event centre/conference facility in Thunder Bay. Of course, you can add Victoriaville as well as the empty Sears store at intercity to the list of underutilized space in Thunder Bay. Personally, it would be nice to see the Sears store retooled in a circular two level galleria space of small stores around a public space that could be used to house the farmers market. The only problem would be to find tenants for the small retail spaces given that rents at the ISC are apparently pretty steep.
The airport's economic role in the city of Thunder Bay and region continues to grow. Passenger volumes in 2017 were 844,627 which represents an increase of 4.6 percent from 2016. Since 1997, this represents an increase of over 60 percent.
In not so positive transportation news, cab fares in Thunder Bay are going up by 15 percent. They were already quite high. And if that is not enough, it looks like the increase in Thunder Bay's tax levy is going to stay at around 3.6 percent as the budget remains pretty much unchanged. Living in Thunder Bay does sometimes seem like a sort of reverse Walmart marketing jingle - pay more, get less.
On Feb. 6-7, the Greater Sudbury Chamber of Commerce will host its
inaugural PEP (Procurement, Employment and Partnerships) conference and
trade show presented by SNC Lavalin in partnership with the Canadian council for Aboriginal Business.
And of interest if you are planning to pursue resource development activities in the region North of 50....
Of course, Sault Ste. Marie is disappointed that they did not make the 20 city short list for Amazon's second corporate campus and joins other disappointed Canadian cities, but not Toronto which remains under consideration.
In North Bay, they are hoping home construction is going to jump start their economy. Not sure where the housing demand is expected to come from but it is important to be hopeful. Perhaps if Toronto gets the Amazon campus, given the cost of housing, Amazon workers will live in North Bay and commute to Toronto.
So that is what has caught my eye across this vast expanse at least economically. One other bright item of news involves this morning's decision in a Thunder Bay courtroom exonerating the Chief of Police. Great to hear. All the best.
My last
post on policing resources in the major northern Ontario cities noted that
all five cities saw an increase in policing resources. In 2000, the largest
number of police offers adjusted for population was in Thunder Bay at 171.6
(per 100,000 of population), followed by Sault Ste Marie at 156, Timmins at
153.1, North Bay at 147.6 and finally Greater Sudbury at 143.1.By 2016, Thunder Bay was still first at 199.5
officers per 100,000 of population.It
was followed by Timmins at 196.2, Sault Ste. Marie at 176.7, Greater Sudbury at
160.7 and then North Bay at 152.6.Growth
in per capita policing resources was greatest in Timmins at 28 percent,
followed by Thunder Bay which saw a 16 percent increase.Next highest growth was Sault Ste. Marie at
13 percent, followed by Greater Sudbury and North Bay at 12 and 3 percent
respectively.
Of course,
the logical question that follows next is what was going on in crime rates over
the same period of time?It should be
noted that policing is much more complex in the early 21st century
dealing not only with traditional crimes but also with new crime areas such as
cyber and internet crime.As well,
social issues in general have been consuming more police resources as well as
new standards of accountability which entail more intensive use of policing
resources when dealing with incidents. Homicide investigation is especially resource intensive. Nonetheless,
a look at crime rates it is still a useful piece of information.
Traditional
measures of the crime rate such as criminal code incidents per 100,000 of
population or per police officer measure the volume of crime.One example is the homicide rate and past
evidence has found the homicide rate declining in northern Ontario in a
manner akin to other Canadian cities with the exception of a recent surge in
Thunder Bay.Another measure of crime is
the Crime Severity Index.The Crime
Severity Index combines both volume as well as takes into consideration the
seriousness of crimes by assigning each type of offense a seriousness weight and
generally serves as a complement to other measures.The index has been set to 100 for Canada in 2006 and enables comparisons
of crime severity both at a point in time and over time.
Figure 1
plots the value of the Crime
Severity Index obtained from Statistics Canada for the five major northern
Ontario cities for the period 1998 to 2016.The severity of crime differs across these five cities in any given year
but all cities have seen a decline over time.The largest declines over time have been in Sudbury and North Bay at 36
and29 percent respectively.Next is
Thunder Bay with a 17 percent decline in crime severity between 1998 and 2016,
followed by Sault Ste. Marie at 16 percent and then Timmins at 15 percent.The good news is that while there are annual
ebbs and flows, crime rates over the long term are down in these major northern
Ontario cities.
Municipal
budget season is upon us and expenditures on protection – police and fire – are
some of the most important areas in which municipal tax dollars are spent. Municipal
police services have the responsibility of ensuring the security of residents,
businesses and visitors to their communities and the basic activities are crime
prevention, enforcement of laws, maintaining public order, assisting the
victims of crime as well as emergency services.Over the years, policing has become more
complex dealing with new types of criminal activity in the cyber age as well as
devoting more resources to social concerns.
One interesting
point of comparison for the five major northern Ontario cities is the number of
police officers per 100,000 of population and the trend in this number over
time.Figure 1 plots Statistics Canada
data on police officers per 100,000 for the period 2000 to 2016.In 2000, the largest number of police offers
adjusted for population was in Thunder Bay at 171.6, followed by Sault Ste
Marie at 156, Timmins at 153.1, North Bay at 147.6 and finally Greater Sudbury
at 143.1.By 2016, Thunder Bay was still
first at 199.5 officers per 100,000 of population.It was followed by Timmins at 196.2, Sault
Ste Marie at 176.7, Greater Sudbury at 160.7 and then North Bay at 152.6.
As Figure 2 illustrates, growth in per capita
policing numbers was greatest in Timmins at 28 percent, followed by Thunder Bay
which saw a 16 percent increases.Next
highest growth was Sault Ste Marie at 13 percent, followed by Greater Sudbury and North Bay at 12 and 3 percent respectively.
Another
point of comparison is spending. The BMA Municipal Reports provide some data on
the costs of providing policing services. The rankings for costs generally
parallel those for police numbers. When the net costs per 100,000 dollars of
assessment are compared (including amortization), in 2016 the highest cost was
in Timmins at $441 per $100,000 of tax assessment followed by Thunder Bay at
$434. Next was Sault Ste Marie at $402, then North Bay at $317 and finally
Greater Sudbury at $299.Naturally, this
ranking is influenced by the richness of the tax base and all other things
given cities with a weaker total tax base can expect costs of policing per
$100,000 of assessment to be higher.At
the same time, over the last decade, all five cities have seen a reduction in
the net costs pf policing per 100,000 dollars of assessment.This could be a function of growth in tax
bases as well as other efficiencies and economies.
Winter finally arrived here in Thunder Bay this week with a plethora of snow, cold and ice. I left for a short trip to Montreal on Monday afternoon with rain and warm temperatures and returned the next evening to a winter wonderland. What better way to spend a cold Saturday here than by warming up the house with homemade pizza....
Without further ado, here are some of the stories making the economic news recently in northern Ontario.
This is yet another positive economic impact story. However, tourism falls far short of the economic impact of Lakehead University as one recalls from this past story.
The Ring of Fire and its associated "production facility" have also been making the news again in the region.
Of course, if you don't get the smelter, there is always the option of storing nuclear waste. Ignace, Manitouwadge and Hornpayne are all still in the running along with two sites near the Bruce Reactor - South Bruce and Huron-Kinloss.
Despite the allure of smelters and nuclear waste disposal sites, there is still a search for economic visions in the north. The Sault is obviously taking the lead in what is one of northern Ontario's booming sectors - economic development consultants.
However, Sudbury's unemployment rate edged up slightly to 6.2 percent from 6.1 percent. Meanwhile, Thunder Bay's rate also went up to 6.1 percent from 5.8 percent the previous month.
I recently came
across a Statistics Canada Report from 2015 on life satisfaction across Census
Metropolitan areas and economic regions that presented ranked scores based on
the responses to the Canadian Community Health Survey and General Social
Survey. The responses are over the period 2009 to 2013 and the key question
was:
“Using a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 means “very
dissatisfied” and 10 means “Very satisfied”, how do you feel about your life as
a whole right now?”
There were
nearly 340,000 respondents to the survey and the results for the CMAs had
samples of at least 1,800 to 2,000 respondents.Average life satisfaction from 2009 to 2013 across Canada’s 33 CMAs (as
shown in Chart 1 below taken from the report) ranged from a low of about 7.8 in
Vancouver, Toronto and Windsor to a high of 8.2 in St. John’s, Trois-Rivieres
and Saguenay.More interesting is that
both Sudbury and Thunder Bay are in the top ten in terms of life
satisfaction.Moreover, the proportion
of individuals reporting a 9 or 10 – the highest rankings – is highest in
Sudbury and Thunder Bay and lowest in Toronto and Vancouver (As shown in Chart 2).Even when the results are adjusted for
individual-level socio-economic characteristics such as income, life satisfaction
remains higher in smaller communities like Thunder Bay or Sudbury.
I guess it
bears repeating that economic success and achievement and life in the big city
may not be all it is cracked up to be.Given
the surge in rents and housing prices in places like Toronto as of late, and the increased congestion and traffic, one
would expect these life satisfaction rankings results would persist if a survey
was done today.Even with slower
economic growth in northern Ontario, it remains that for many people there is an
advantage to living in communities where there is a more intimate and human
scale of life.
At the same
time, given the higher rate of aging populations in smaller communities and the
u-shaped relationship between life satisfaction and age the report notes, it may simply be demographics - an
older population seems to be a happier one.While young people are striving and competing and making their
way in the world, older people have pretty much come to accept where they are
at and are comfortable in their own skins. Having a larger proportion of older people in a community may be the key to tranquility and happiness on a community level.
Nevertheless,
northern Ontario can use all the good news it can get.Residents of northern Ontario have apparently
decided to embrace Albert Einstein’s observation that: “A calm and modest life
brings more happiness than the pursuit of success.”
Statistics Canada's latest building permit numbers show an increase nationally in September with a monthly increase of 3.8 percent. Yearly (September 2016 to September 2017), the total value of permits in Canada was up 12.43 percent. As noted by Statistics Canada: "Canadian municipalities issued $7.9 billion worth of building permits in
September, up 3.8% from the previous month. A 1.7% decrease in the
residential sector was more than offset by a 13.9% increase in the
non-residential sector. A high-value institutional building permit
issued in Alberta was behind much of the increase." Ontario posted a decrease mainly due to lower construction intentions for apartments which probably does not bode well for the future of renters in the province.
With respect to the specifics across cities, the accompanying figure presents the percent change from September 2016 to September 2017 ranked from highest to lowest for Canadian CMAs. For all CMAs, the increase was 14.5 percent. At the top we have Halifax, St. John's and Brantford at 196.9, 154.5 and 145.2 percent growth respectively. At the bottom - well, Thunder Bay is last at -62.9 percent, just behind Hamilton at -43.7 percent and Kingston at -40 percent. Sudbury actually manages to shine at an increase of 123.3 percent - just behind Brantford putting it in fourth place. Of the 14 CMAs showing a decrease, seven were in Ontario - including Toronto which saw a year over year decrease of 13 percent.
It is quite the blustery day here in Thunder Bay today so what better way to hunker down and enjoy the day than taking a look at the major economic news items over the last little while.
Well, it turns out that according to a study authored by faculty at Lakehead's business school that Lakehead University's economic impact on Ontario is 1.4 billion dollars. To my way of thinking, the faculty are the core of the university - indeed all the expenditures a university makes are to allow faculty to generate research, teaching outcomes and human capital value added for graduates so given that there are about 300 full-time faculty at Lakehead, I would estimate my personal economic impact on Ontario's economy at 4.7 million dollars (1.4 billion dollars divided by 300). Based on my current salary, I am obviously grossly undervalued. That is a pretty good return to any investment. Come to think of it, hiring more full time university faculty is obviously a cheap and effective way to boost Ontario GDP. Let the hiring boom begin.
Well, a few weeks ago it was a delegation from China. This week a delegation from India is passing through Thunder Bay. Given the precarious state of our NAFTA negotiations, I would imagine it is a good idea to try and build as many ties as possible with the Asia Pacific region.
This is the northern Ontario take on the tax changes being shepherded by Bill Morneau. However, as we know there are going to be revisions. Moreover, there may be other goodies coming down the pipeline in the wake of today's fiscal and economic update in Ottawa.
And in other Sudbury economic and business news....
No comment there. Sounds like a pretty strong difference of opinions.
While Thunder Bay is focusing on India and China for its economic enhancement efforts, it would appear that Timmins Economic Development Corporation has targeted Bolivia.
On the other hand, what if Amazon builds its new headquarters in the Sault? The Sault is sending in a proposal. Check here. Quite frankly, I have not come across other northern Ontario cities doing the same.
As well, there is television production activity underway in the Sault.
The State of the North conference hosted by the Northern Policy Institute was held in Timmins from September 27-28 with much of the discussion focusing on reversing the north's economic decline. Charles Cirtwill, President of the Northern Policy Institute sent out the slides of his presentation with an invitation to share and today's post reproduces a few of those slides. Figures 1-2 present some GDP estimates by sector for the Northwest and the Northeast of Ontario while Figures 3-5 present non-residential building permits for assorted northern Ontario districts.
Here are some of the items of economic interest with respect to northern Ontario that have caught my interest over the last little while. There truly is never a dull moment when it comes to the economy of northern Ontario.
While being a small resource based community means dire times when the main industry shuts down, the converse is that when a new industry starts up, there can be a boom. White River is getting good economic news.
This is definitely good news and raises the prospect that Porter may be looking at expanding its service west and south. I would expect to see more flights through Thunder Bay to Winnipeg and perhaps through Chicago Midway to connect with the current Chicago-Toronto run.
I suppose you can start to smell the prospects of elections coming soon. A provincial election is expected by spring while municipalities will be going to the polls next October. Needless to say, the shopping lists are being put together in the form of strategies and plans designed to reverse the northern Ontario economic decline and to get candidates elected. Such regional studies and strategies have a long history in the north - think back to the 1970s (Design for Development) or the 1980s (Royal Commission on the Northern Environment) or the 2000s (Regional Adjustment Strategy, The Northern Growth Plan, the Rosehart Report). Given the lack of success to date in reversing northern decline, one must admire everyone's faith in grand economic studies and development strategies but then I suppose there is no serious expectation they will reverse anything. Their purpose is simply to put together the wish list for new government spending initiatives designed to continue northern Ontario's palliative economic care. This is not really a new vision at all but rather business as usual.
And in terms of some of the more entertaining economic development strategies being touted:
Apparently one of the visions discussed was shiploads of vegetables and beef and other agricultural produce from Thunder Bay's port to Nanning. According to one Thunder Bay City Councillor: "There is that kind of potential for our agricultural sector." I assume this meant western Canada's agricultural sector (but then why ship to China through Thunder Bay rather than Vancouver or Prince Rupert) given that Thunder Bay's agricultural sector would be hard pressed to feed 100,000 people locally never mind 7.5 million in Nanning.
Still, its nice to be friends with other cities even if the expectations are a little off kilter.
Well, here is some interesting data on median donations by Ontario CMA in 2015 available from Statistics Canada (Table 111-0001). It is of course useful as an index of local generosity to charitable causes. Please note it is not a complete index as it only takes into account the value of donations and charitable activity also can involve a great deal of donated volunteer time - which this measure does not capture. Nevertheless, Figure 1 is somewhat disappointing when one looks at the performance of northern Ontario.
The median donation ranges from a high of $470 for Wellington Centre to a low of $140 dollars for Petawawa. With the exception of Elliot Lake which is in the middle of the distribution, northern Ontario cities are all clustered in the bottom third. Elliot Lake comes in at $340 followed by Kenora at $290, North Bay at $270 and Thunder Bay at $260. Timmins and the Sault are at the bottom of the northern median donation list at $160 and $210 respectively. It is a somewhat disappointing performance given our self-perception as being very community minded.
Of course, a possible explanation could be that the value of donations is a reflection of lower incomes in the North. However, as my last post demonstrated, income growth has been pretty robust in northern Ontario. Moreover, as Figure 2 shows, the median income of donors across Ontario CMAs shows that the northern Ontario CMAs are more dispersed across the income range. Donor incomes in northern Ontario CMAs are not clustered at the bottom. Elliot Lake, is at the bottom of the donor income plot and yet is the most generous northern Ontario CMA whereas Sudbury which has the highest median donor income is near the bottom when it comes to median donation values.
Needless to say, I am not too despondent over this. While all I can offer is anecdotal evidence, I think that donors in northern communities probably are much more giving of their time than money when it comes to charitable activity. Thunder Bay for example has numerous community events - most recently the 2017 18U World Cup - that are only possible via the selfless activity of numerous volunteers. Then there are the activities of food banks and other facilities that also rely heavily on donated time. So, in the end, when it comes to charity, I think money is not everything. Still, it would be nice to see those numbers go up. If Elliot Lake can do it, why not everyone else.
Statistics Canada has released the figures for median household income in Canada from the 2016 census providing comparisons for the period 2005 to 2015. The median total income of Canadian households rose from $63,457 in 2005 to reach $70,336 in 2015 - an increase of 10.8 percent. This growth was led by the resource intensive provinces and Ontario appears to have done particularly poorly- it had the lowest growth rate at 3.8 percent. Even Quebec did better at 8.9 percent - the second lowest growth rate. Almost every metropolitan area in Ontario saw growth below the Canadian average - with an interesting set of exceptions.
What is interesting in these numbers given Ontario's poor performance is the performance of the major northern Ontario cities, what I like to term the N-5: Thunder Bay, Timmins, Greater Sudbury, Sault Ste. Marie and North Bay. Incomes in three of these five cities all grew above the Canadian average - a much better batting average than the rest of the province. Moreover, all five of these cities grew above the Ontario average.
Figure 1
Of course, median household incomes in these northern Ontario cities are still below the Ontario median (See Figure 1) but over the course of a decade they appear to have closed the gap substantially despite the forest sector crisis and other assorted slings and arrows. Indeed, as Figure 2 shows that median household incomes in Timmins, Sudbury and North Bay all grew above the Canadian and Ontario average. Thunder Bay and the Sault did not top the national performance but they still topped the provincial performance.
Figure 2
If you are wondering about income growth in some other Ontario cities, for the record: Toronto (4%), Hamilton (5.3%), Ottawa (4.4%), London (-2.1%), Windsor (-6.4%). The urban north of the province appears to have done surprisingly well in the median household income sweepstakes and this probably represents another factor in why house prices to date have been as robust as they have been in places like Thunder Bay and Sudbury.
Summer is over, autumn is back and winter is coming. It is the start of a new academic school year and life takes on a brisker pace here in Thunder Bay both on and off campus. Traffic is noticeably up everywhere in town and the drivers are in a hurry. So, without any more delay, here are the recent stories I feel have some economic significance for northern Ontario. Vale to shut Clarabelle Mill Crushing plant. CBCNews Sudbury. September 7th, 2017. As noted in another story in the Sudbury Star, Vale is not closing the mill itself, but only the crushing plant. This is expected to affect 13 jobs but no plans for workforce reduction have been announced yet. It should be noted that it has apparently been a good month for commodity prices. Also in Sudbury... Sudbury city councillor wants a closer look at de-amalgamation. CBCNews Sudbury, September 6th, 2017. Sudbury city councillor Michael Vagnini wants to put forth a motion to re-examine the amalgamation of 8 areas that took place in 2001 to create Greater Sudbury. Laurentian University economist David Robinson says amalgamation hasn't worked. Vagnini notes that municipal employment in the former cities together has grown 30 percent since 2001 which suggests rising costs (and taxes) underpin his concerns. Of course, breaking everything asunder after it has been put together will involve substantial transition and transaction costs and the key question should be what are the benefits and what are the costs. If Sudbury explores this option, is Thunder Bay next? One can make the case that having twin cities at the Lakehead led to economic competition that may have generated some growth and development benefits. It could be more than a coincidence that amalgamation in 1970 which resulted in monopoly municipal government also coincided with the start of decades of slower economic growth.
Of course, Thunder Bay has enough issues on its plate without embarking on revisiting its own amalgamation. If anything, it apparently could use some good news and this week has seen a spate of good news stories especially from its local CBC outlet. There have been stories on the start of school, the excitement of the XXVIII WBSC U-18 Baseball World Cup 2017 which is being held in Thunder Bay and the community spirit it has brought to the fore as well as a story on making clowns feel better given that nasty Stephen King character. However, the most interesting story has been a set of stories on why Thunder Bay is important to Canada and in particular, this one: What makes Thunder Bay important? Economically, it's our location. CBCNews Thunder Bay, September 5th, 2017.
Its an upbeat boosterish piece not out of place with the pre-World War I brochures that used to extol Port Arthur and Fort William as the future hubs of the Dominion. In many respects, little changes in Thunder Bay when it comes to its approaches to marketing economic development. This morning also had an interview featuring young professionals noting all the potential that Thunder Bay has when it comes to opportunity and that the economy seems to be doing well because restaurants are opening. Don't get me wrong. I think Thunder Bay is a great place to live and work but I think these types of self-obsessed feel good efforts directed at ourselves reflect a fundamental insecurity and an insular preoccupation with ourselves. We really should be aiming any marketing campaign outside of the city, not at ourselves and I'm a bit surprised by the relentless onslaught of feel good stories by the local outlet of the national broadcaster. Perhaps there has been a recent local management change or perhaps the PMO has sent the national broadcaster a directive that there must only be "sunny ways" stories in rural remote regions.
In other upbeat news with a more direct quantifiable economic impact:
City continues ferrochrome plant pitch. saultstar.com. August 29th, 2017. And in Timmins, more mining progress. Sage Gold bulks up for mill sample. Northern Ontario Business. September 1st, 2017. So, it looks like everything really is sunny in northern Ontario this week though even when it comes to the mining sector there are some critiques. I guess we all need to make a conscious effort to spend more time out in the sunshine especially before the winter sets in.
And one last bit of good news, just out from Statistics Canada. Canada's unemployment rate declined slightly to 6.2 percent. Thunder Bay's rate for August is 6.5 percent (down from 6.7) and Sudbury's is 5.2 percent (down from 5.4)
It is Labour Day and the official end of summer break and the start of a new academic year. Traditionally, this weekend also marks the end of summer fashions such as white shoes though strict adherence to such practices have rarely characterized the social circles I move in. Summer in Thunder Bay can be quite pleasant though this year was a little cooler than usual. Nevertheless, the scenery this year was greener than usual due to the rain and the cool temperatures. The trees in my yard filled out very nicely and their canopies provided a home for quite a few birds including this visitor under my pear tree...a Red Tailed Hawk I believe.
Red Tailed Hawk from my dining room window
And from the basement window
We were alerted to the hawk's presence by some shrill shrieks outside and it appears the hawk had managed to find something to eat. The hawk's presence may be a factor in why the yard has been so quiet today when it comes to bird song in general.
On another day while walking along the nearby trail, came across one of nature's armoured tanks. I was surprised to see this out in the middle of the day and plodding along on its way to the nearby river.
Also managed to get out to Nipigon this summer for a day trip that involved a visit to the waterfront, a short hike along the trail to Red Rock and then a very nice lunch at the Edgeview Restaurant. A shot of the Nipigon River from the trail and another that also manages to include the new bridge - which incidentally is still a ways from being finished.
Not a bridge too far, a bridge that does not yet go far enough
The scenery in Nipigon was very pleasant and the visit also include a stop at the recently unveiled Paddle to the Sea Park. Those of you who are of a certain age will likely remember the children's book and NFB film.
And one final picture from my summer sojourns around Thunder Bay and the North. A shot of me and one of my minions! Every self respecting economist must have an abundance of minions to support their policy prescriptions and points of view.
